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Early winter weather predictions released by NOAA
(NEXSTAR) – Warmer and dry or about-normal and wet – that's the way late fall and early winter are expected to be divided in the U.S., according to the latest outlook. As it did in September, the latest seasonal forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows a country divided. The forecast, released Thursday, shows the kind of broad weather patterns each state can expect through the last two months of 2026 and the first of 2027, falling roughly in line with what is expected from the "historic" El Niño we're facing. What will winter be like near you? Here's what the outlooks suggest States in the northern half of the country – from the Pacific Northwest, along the Canadian border, through the Midwest, into the Ohio Valley eastward, and north to New England – have the highest probability of seeing above-average warmth between November and January. An expanding group of states – including all or parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, and California – are not leaning above-average this fall. That doesn't mean it will be cold, necessarily; it just means the forecast is less clear, giving the states an equal chance of seeing a warm, cool, or normal winter season. The precipitation outlook is flipped, however. These households could spend more to heat their homes this winter, federal outlook says Many of the same states expected to trend warmer are also more likely to be dry. A large, W-shaped swath to the south – from California to Florida and north to New England, as well as a group in the central Plains – are leaning toward above-average rain. Florida and its nearby neighbors from the Gulf to the East Coast, as well as southern California and Arizona, have the highest probability. Meanwhile, portions of Montana, Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Alaska have the highest probability of a dry winter. These forecasts are roughly what is expected during a typical El Niño year, with the dividing line across the country shifting depending on the position of the jet stream. Earlier this month, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said in its latest update that El Niño "strengthened further last month," with "a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely" from January through March. "Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950," the latest guidance from the CPC explained. "With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed."
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How to help after Hurricane Isaias
MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) — United Way of Southwest Alabama is teaming up with Nexstar sister stations to help expand Hurricane Isaias relief efforts in 19 counties in Florida and Alabama. Money raised will support individuals, businesses and organizations who are recovering from the storm. "Led by WKRG News 5, the regional media collaboration extends the fund's reach across multiple television markets, allowing donors to support relief and recovery efforts in the county of their choice," the release read. Mobile-based WKRG supports Baldwin, Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Mobile and Monroe counties in Alabama, as well as Escambia, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa counties in Florida. Four more Nexstar sister stations are also participating in the relief effort, including: WDHN Supporting Coffee, Covington, Geneva, and Houston counties in Alabama WRBL Supporting Barbour County in Alabama WIAT Supporting Jefferson County in Alabama WMBB Supporting Bay, Holmes, Walton and Washington counties in Florida “Recovery doesn't stop at county or state lines,” Justine Bixler, president and CEO of United Way of Southwest Alabama, said. “Our collaboration with WKRG News 5 allows us to reach more communities and connect people who want to help with organizations supporting families affected by Hurricane Isaias. "By working together with local media, we can bring greater attention and resources to recovery efforts throughout the region.” Those interested in donating can do so in three ways: online at the GiveSmart website, by texting Isaias26 to 91999, or by scanning the QR code above.
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Fall Foliage Forecast: Oct. 15, 2026
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — West Michigan is approaching the peak of the fall colors, but rain and breezy conditions may take away the top-end potential from our foliage display. CURRENT FALL COLORS Much of the Upper Peninsula has now peaked, though colors remain vibrant near the shorelines. If you're planning to head north to the U.P. your best views of the leaves will be seen in communities like Manistique and Sault Ste. Marie or parts of the Keweenaw Peninsula, where colors are lagging slightly behind areas toward the Porcupine Mountains, which are past peak. Meanwhile, the majority of the lower peninsula is showing moderate color changes with approximately half of the leaves having changed. Storm Team 8 Forecast It'd be a great weekend to visit Petoskey or Gaylord, which are on course to hit their peak colors within the next few days. Most of West Michigan is scheduled to see peak colors during the final week of October, leading up to Halloween. WINDY AND RAINY LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND The month of October has offered quiet, dry and comfortable conditions for fall color tours. However, some substantial changes are expected leading into the weekend. Strong winds from the northwest gusting near 30 mph will combine with periods of moderate to heavy rain. These factors will begin to pull off more of the leaves from the trees. If you have any trees around your property, you'll likely need to do some raking in the near future once things dry back out. Inside woodtv.com: Radar SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND AHEAD While Thursday and Friday will bring active weather to the region, things should settle down for the upcoming weekend. Clouds are expected to dissipate quickly Saturday following some patchy morning frost. Sunny skies will help the fall colors shine throughout the weekend. On Sunday, the wind will kick up a notch with gusts registering between 20 and 25 mph from the southwest. Temperatures will respond sliding back into the 60s. The extended forecast favors sunshine and mild autumn high temperatures in the 60s for much of the coming week, so hopefully the impacts of the breezy and wet conditions will be minimal. Stay with Storm Team 8 as we bring you more updates on the fall colors through the weeks ahead and send your pictures in anytime.
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How the Waffle House Index helps Southerners — and FEMA — gauge a storm’s severity
(AP) – Golden hash browns, gravy-smothered biscuits and crispy waffles with a hearty helping of syrup are among the classic Southern comfort foods. But when hurricanes tear through Southeastern towns, the hot meals and bold yellow signs of the local Waffle House provide another kind of comfort. If a Waffle House stays open in town, even in a limited capacity, neighbors are reassured that the coming storm is unlikely to cause devastation. A closed location of the dependable diner chain has come to indicate impending disaster. The metric is known as the Waffle House Index. FILE - A sign on a closed Waffle House on Highway US 19 in anticipation of Hurricane Milton on Oct. 8, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson, File) What might sound like silly logic has become one of the most reliable ways for Southerners — and even federal officials — to gauge a storm’s severity and identify communities most in need of immediate aid. What is the Waffle House Index? The South’s favorite disaster authority provides an informal measure of how significantly a storm will affect or has affected a community. A map of the chain’s over 1,900 locations, concentrated in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, helps residents of storm-prone states assess whether they’re likely to lose power, experience severe flooding or endure other extreme conditions that might cause a resilient restaurant to close its doors. For some, it’s a telltale sign of whether they need to evacuate. Hurricane Isaias expected to get stronger before landfall Waffle House is known not just for serving breakfast 24/7, 365 days a year, but also for its disaster preparedness. For decades, people across the South have noticed that the local Waffle House seemed to be the only business still open during a storm or the first to reopen after it passed. The restaurant chain’s reputation for remaining open when people desperately needed a place to warm up, charge devices and grab a hot meal became a fairly reliable — albeit amusing — resource to help track recovery efforts. The company even operates its own storm center. How does the index work? Waffle House’s social media shares color-coded maps of its restaurant locations in certain regions that will soon be hit or are recovering from storm damage. The Federal Emergency Management Agency also offers some live tracking. Green means the location is serving a full menu, indicating minimal damage in the surrounding area. The lights are on and the syrup is flowing. FILE - Luke Churchill, left, stands with his wife Mary and their children, Katie, Liam and Raighan, as they wait in the rain outside an open Waffle House restaurant in Wilmington, N.C., after Hurricane Florence traveled through the area on Sept. 16, 2018. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File) Yellow means the restaurant is serving a limited menu, a signal that it’s pulling power from a generator and might have a low food supply. The area might not have running water or electricity, but there’s enough gas to fry up bacon for hungry customers. Red means the location is closed, a sign of unsafe operating conditions and severe destruction to the restaurant or nearby communities. How did the index start? Former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate has said he thought up the Waffle House Index while leading Florida’s emergency management efforts in 2004. He had been searching for something to eat while surveying the devastation left by Hurricane Charley and was only able to find a Waffle House serving a limited menu. His team began to notice other open Waffle Houses in communities without power or running water. The restaurants eventually became a key feature on a color-coded map that his team provided to help the public and local officials identify where storm damage was most severe. Fugate continued to use his color-coded map when he joined FEMA under President Barack Obama. He was the agency’s administrator in 2011 when a deadly tornado tore through the town of Joplin, Missouri. Both of the town’s Waffle Houses reportedly stayed open. The restaurant chain’s disaster readiness is no coincidence. Seven locations were destroyed and 100 more shut down in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina, but company executives saw business skyrocket at restaurants that reopened quickly. They soon embraced a business strategy centered around keeping their restaurants operable during and after a disaster, according to the company’s website. The chain said it has invested in portable generators, bought a mobile command center and trained employees on what they can still serve if they lose electricity.
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Atlantic hurricanes starting with ‘I’ typically bring death, destruction. Isaias is up next
(AP) -- Be wary of hurricanes that start with the letter “I.” The ninth letter of the alphabet leads all others in the number of named Atlantic storms that have been retired over the decades due to their destruction or high death tolls. The names may be out of circulation, but storms including Ian, Ida, Igor, Ike, Inez, Ingrid, Iota, Irene, Irma, Isabel and Ivan left lasting legacies. Next up is Isaias, which became the first hurricane of the Atlantic season on Wednesday night. Whether it lives up to the misery of others whose first letter it shares remains to be seen. The latest forecast suggested Isaias could be less dramatic, but still “extremely dangerous.” “It’s the ‘I’ storm, which usually we have a lot earlier in the year,” said Kristen Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany. “It’s always the ‘I’ storms that seem to cause problems.” Isaias was expected to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Atlantic hurricanes have been given names since 1953, and 100 of them are no longer used. There have been 14 storms with “I” names retired, including 12 this century. When eastern and central Pacific hurricanes are considered, that retired “I” list grows to 20. Ten Atlantic storm names starting with “F” have been retired, followed by “C” with nine, and “D” and “M” with eight apiece, according to a list compiled by the hurricane center. Why I is such a foreboding letter Hurricanes starting with “I” typically occur in the middle of the June 1-Nov. 30 season, when warming ocean waters can supercharge a storm's energy. The timing of Isaias is an exception to this trend, due to the current super El Niño weather pattern, which stunted Atlantic hurricane formations through September while cranking out storms throughout the Pacific region. Isaias came one day shy of tying a 121-year-old record for the latest-forming initial hurricane of the Atlantic season. ‘I’ storms prove to be costly Of the 55 costliest hurricanes to hit the United States, a dozen began with the letter “I", including four in the top 10. Category 4 Ian in 2022 came in at No. 3 with $119.6 billion in damage. Ian hammered Florida with such ferocity that it wiped out whole neighborhoods, tossed boats onto highways, swept away beaches and swamped homes in roof-deep waters. Category 4 Ida, devastating parts of Louisiana in 2021, was the sixth-costliest hurricane at $84.6 billion. Category 4 Irma tore through the Florida Keys in 2017 for No. 8 at a cost of $64 billion. Category 2 Ike made landfall near Galveston, Texas, in 2008 for No. 10 at $43.2 billion. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it based these figures on the 2024 Consumer Price Index adjusted cost. In 2020, they ran out of names. Then came Iota The 2020 hurricane season exhausted that year’s alphabetical list of storm names by mid-September, so later storms were identified using Greek letters, including Iota, the 30th named storm of that record-breaking year. Category 4 Iota decimated Nicaragua and Honduras in November 2020 only two weeks after another hurricane had passed through the region. The World Meteorological Organization, which oversees storm naming, later decided not to use the Greek alphabet for future storms, citing potential confusion when translated into other languages. Instead, a supplemental list of names will be used when the standard list is exhausted in a particular season. Ivan spawned 118 tornadoes in a destructive loop Ivan tore through Grand Cayman island in 2004, damaging or destroying an estimated 95 percent of the buildings there, the National Weather Service said. Then it slammed into the United States, spawning 118 tornadoes from Florida to Pennsylvania, more than any other tropical system since modern-day records have been kept starting in 1950, the weather service said. The storm was blamed for 124 deaths, including 57 in the United States. Ivan formed during an El Niño, and churned a loopy path. After coming ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama, it went up to Virginia, then back down through southeast Florida, returning into the U.S. Gulf and to Texas. Irene was among the costliest in its category In 2011, Hurricane Irene sent cars bobbing down rivers, swept away covered bridges, put millions in the dark and killed dozens of people. It made landfall along the North Carolina coast, then veered north along a densely populated corridor. New York City took a direct hit, but the heaviest rains were further inland. In Vermont, the storm killed six people, washed homes off their foundations and damaged or destroyed more than 200 bridges and 500 miles (805 kilometers) of highway. It was the costliest Category 1 U.S. hurricane on record since at least 1980, with estimated total damage of $18.8 billion.
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Fall Foliage Forecast: Oct. 8, 2026
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Fall colors are continuing to pop out across West Michigan while parts of the Upper Peninsula are reaching their peak of the season. Fall Foliage Photo courtesy of Andrea Martin taken at Huff Park Oct. 6, 2026. CURRENT FALL FOLIAGE The month of October began with a widespread, heavy soaking rain which should help to further enhance the fall colors. It was the 5th wettest start to October on record in Grand Rapids with 1.38" of precipitation. Changing leaves are becoming more widespread across the Lower Peninsula. Locally, the most vibrant colors are being seen approaching US-10 for cities such as Big Rapids and Mount Pleasant with roughly half of the trees having changed so far. A slower roll-out of the fall colors is occurring toward the lakeshore where temperatures are moderated slightly by Lake Michigan. About 20-40% of the leaves have changed near Pentwater. The Fruit Ridge: West Michigan’s perfect plots for farming Below is a list of estimated dates for the fall colors reaching their peak with the majority of West Michigan landing in the late October timeframe. If you're trying to catch the best of the fall colors in the Upper Peninsula, time is running short. Areas around the Porcupine Mountains are either at or just past their peak. The Keweenaw Peninsula and areas near Marquette are on track to peak within the next week. Eastern parts of the U.P. and Mackinac Island are trending toward seeing their peak colors between October 15th and 20th, so there's a little more time if you want to plot out a road trip up that way. Poll: What’s your favorite fall treat? WEEKEND FORECAST - SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES Beyond the wet start, this October has been characterized by plentiful sunshine —far exceeding average through the first week of the month. Autumn sunshine and cool nights help to create and trap extra sugars inside the leaves, which in turn will lead to more vibrant colors. The weekend is set to bring some more pleasant conditions to West Michigan, but it won't be quite as sunny as what has been experienced in recent days. Temperatures will be rather warm, especially on Saturday as highs reach into the middle 70s on Saturday, which is approximately 10 degrees above average. Saturday will probably be the best day for leaf peeping and getting photos. Rain returns to the picture on Friday and Sundy, but the coverage will be fairly limited. Isolated showers are expected Friday evening which could affect high school football games. The remnants of Hurricane Isaias may clip areas to the southeast of Grand Rapids on Sunday. Hurricane Isaias could be headed to West Michigan A pattern flip into cooler conditions may be joined by breezy conditions moving past Monday. This may start to drop more leaves off the trees depending on how strong the wind becomes. Make sure to share your fall colors pictures with us and stay with Storm Team 8 as we continue to bring you updates on the fall foliage moving through the season.
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Hurricane Isaias will bring showers to Michigan Sunday
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — After the slowest start on record, the first hurricane of the season has formed in the Gulf. As of Friday morning, Hurricane Isaias reached category 3 level with winds of 120 miles per hour. As the storm tracks towards the shore, it will encounter wind shear that will weaken the storm. Isaias is on track to make landfall as a category 2 hurricane in Alabama and Florida Friday evening. At that time, winds are expected to reach between 96 and 110 miles per hour. Dangerous storm surge of 5 to 7 feet is expected along the coast with 4 to 8 inches of rain stretching across portions of Florida, Alabama, and Georgia. By Saturday morning, Isaias will likely lose strength and be downgraded to a tropical storm. The moisture from Isaias continues to track north into the weekend bringing showers and thunderstorms in Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Ohio. At this time, impacts will be minimal for West Michigan with only scattered showers expected. Dry weather makes a return for West Michigan by late Sunday and Monday.
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The Fruit Ridge: West Michigan’s perfect plots for farming
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Detroit may be the Motor City, but Michigan is an agricultural state. Michigan is home to nearly 44,000 farms on approximately 9.4 million acres of land. No state produces more tart cherries, blueberries and squash than the Mitten State, not to mention the state’s production of milk, corn, sugar beets, cattle and hogs. Frost, smoke and drought combine for challenging growing season It’s no surprise that large parts of West Michigan are dedicated to fruit-growing. What may be a surprise is that a particular stretch of West Michigan is practically the scientific ideal for it. It’s called the Fruit Ridge. It’s about 8 miles wide and 20 miles long, running from Walker to Grant, covering portions of Kent, Muskegon, Newaygo and Ottawa counties. Laura Johnson, the chief science officer for the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, said two key factors make the Fruit Ridge a rare anomaly for fruit growing, and it started thousands of years ago. “The first one is the glacial activity that happened all across Michigan. We used to be under miles of ice,” Johnson told News 8. “It shaped and deposited a unique set of sediments right there along the Fruit Ridge. It’s called a moraine. It’s basically where the end of that ice lobe used to be.” A map drawn in 1930 by experts from Michigan State University about which type of farming best suits different regions of the state based on weather and land conditions. (Courtesy MSU Extension) The ice sheets didn’t move consistently, Johnson explained, but rather in stretches. The slower melting periods allowed for more sediment to be released. “So we got that Fruit Ridge formed that provides some elevation and perfect, really good soil types for growing fruit,” she said. West Michigan’s top 8 cider mills The sediment left the ridge full of loamy soil with a high clay content. “Loam has the perfect mix of sand, silt and clay, so it’s like the perfect garden mix soil,” Johnson said. “This has a little bit more clay than that, which means it has a little bit more of the type of nutrients that are good for growing things. It also has a good amount of water-holding capacity. It can hold onto moisture. But because it’s on the ridge, it still has nice drainage so you don’t get wet tree roots.” Hill Brothers Orchards & Cider Mill is one of several scattered along West Michigan's Fruit Ridge. (WOOD TV8 file) The second factor relates to moderating temperatures and is particularly important for growing apples. “That little bit of terrain, it makes it so when cold fronts come through, all of that cold air tends to be down in the bottom areas,” Johnson said. “So if you’re up on the ridge … it protects those trees a little bit from the effects of especially cold weather. … It delays those flowers from growing (in the spring) and protects it from an unexpected frost.” The Lake Line: The railroad that connected Grand Rapids to the lakeshore The extra elevation also helps in the fall. “It does the same thing when the weather starts to get cooler, because all that air is coming off the lake, (the ridge) keeps it a little bit warmer into the fall. That really helps with harvesting,” Johnson said. Apples dominate the Fruit Ridge, but they are not the only fruit grown there. Several farmers on the ridge also grow peaches, pears, plums, nectarines and several kinds of berries. According to Ridge Economic Agricultural Partners, orchards on the Fruit Ridge is responsible for about 60% of Michigan’s apple crop. Johnson believes apples dominate the area because there’s a wide market for them and they have historically proven to be a successful crop there. Pigeon Hill: Another piece of West Michigan lost to time Once it is shown that it can work, it becomes a safe bet. Farmers can also share expertise and even infrastructure to get the fruit to market. “If you’re growing anything, it’s really important that whatever you’re growing has a place to go, so it can be processed and it can be packaged and then it can be sold,” Johnson said. Fall is a busy time for the farmers’ markets along the Fruit Ridge. REAP lists 40 markets/event spaces in the area and has an online guide with hours and details for each market.
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Chief Meteorologist Ellen Bacca (and husband Mark) welcomed their first child over the weekend, with the birth of Piper Sunny. Check out these sweet pictures<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hurricane Lee continues to slowly track toward the United States. Click here for the latest on intensity and path<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Saturday brought plenty of sunshine and calm conditions. Bill’s Blog dives into what is currently the calmest day of 2023.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEATHER WEAR<\/strong>
Rain Jacket
Umbrella<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNRISE<\/strong> 7:17 a.m.
SUNSET<\/strong> 7:59 p.m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even when I walk through the darkest valley, I will not be afraid, for you are close beside me.
PSALM 23:4 NLTGrand Rapids / Lakeshore
Kalamazoo
Battle Creek
Benton Harbor