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Storm Team 8 winter weather outlook: 2026-2027
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — A strong El Niño is likely to have a large influence on the upcoming winter in West Michigan. WHAT IS AN EL NIÑO? El Niño happens when warm Pacific Ocean waters near South America drive changes to the atmospheric pattern, affecting global temperatures and precipitation distribution. An El Niño happens roughly every two to seven years in a cycle. Sea surface temperature map highlighting warm Pacific Ocean waters with an El Niño signature. ‘Behemoth’ El Niño could be ‘off the charts,’ forecasters warn El Niño measurements are currently strong, with water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific significantly above average. El Niño is likely to intensify leading into December and water temperatures will continue to climb before the phase weakens slightly into the back half of the winter season. Probability of El Niño remains high through early 2027. WHAT IMPACTS WILL EL NIÑO HAVE IN WEST MICHIGAN? It's likely to be a slow start to winter locally. Quiet and relatively mild weather is projected into December. During past El Niño winters, temperatures have been regularly above average by several degrees December through February and that will likely hold true once again. Temperatures are expected to hover 3 to 5 degrees warmer than average in West Michigan over the course of the winter. Precipitation amounts should register near-normal, with rain and mixed precipitation helping to fill in the gap for the expected lack of observed snowfall. Lower snow amounts are common during El Niño winters in West Michigan. Download the free Storm Team 8 weather app Storm Team 8 is projecting a final snowfall total for the winter season in Grand Rapids ranging between 45 and 55 inches. An average winter delivers approximately 77 inches of accumulating snow. In addition to a lower total amount of snow, El Niño winters also tend to have fewer days with accumulating snow. During a typical winter, there's at least a trace of snow on 51 days in Grand Rapids. In recent strong El Niño winters, that number is reduced down to an average of 34 days. This shortfall will likely lead to less overall disruptions and school cancellations in contrast to a normal winter. LIMITED LAKE ICE EXPECTED With temperatures held above average, there will be less consistently cold weather to form ice on the Great Lakes. Referring to ice cover data on Lake Michigan dating back to 1973, a moderate to strong El Niño favors limited development of lake ice. Open water leads to more evaporation and could feed into ice or wintry mix events. Cloud cover also tends to be greater during El Niño winters, so expect the sunshine to go absent for some long stretches of time through the next few months. LATE WINTER TRENDS Polar vortex intrusions may build in a few larger snow events moving through the later stages of the winter season, especially as El Niño weakens some getting into 2027. When it does snow, there's a greater chance that the amounts of snow will be significant and of greater impact. Similar El Niño years have resulted in February ice events and about a foot of snow in March, so you'll want to hold off on putting the shovels away or burning the gas out of the snowblower even if we happen to get an early taste of spring. TAKEAWAYS While there's a high level of confidence in some of the main attributes of this upcoming winter, it's still dependent on a number of variables. With the current phase of El Niño being as strong as it is, there should be a slow start to the season with warmer than average temperatures. There's a strong chance of a green Christmas. Sign up for the Storm Team 8 daily forecast newsletter Things may become more active into the start of 2027 with cold air intrusions. There's also a tendency in past El Niño winters for a late season ice storm in February and winter overstaying its welcome with more snow into March. Storm Team 8 can be counted on to bring you the information you need to know each step of the way going through the winter season and you can get the latest forecast any time right here.
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Fall Foliage Forecast: Nov. 5, 2026
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Fall colors are starting to disappear, with windy and cooler weather taking over West Michigan. CURRENT FALL COLORS The majority of the state is now past the peak of the fall colors, with some bare limbs up in the trees, but you can still find a few spots where the leaves remain vibrant. Exploring fall colors in Manistee National Forest Areas near the lakeshore around Benton Harbor and South Haven remain near peak colors. Metro Detroit east of Ann Arbor is also still showing some beautiful fall colors if you happen to be heading to the other side of the state. If you're trying to sneak in a late season color tour, those two spots will be your best bets. Versluis Lake north of Grand Rapids on Oct. 31, 2026. (Courtesy Lori Finnerty) Riverside Park in Grand Rapids. Courtesy Andrea Martin. Pam Harris- Rockville Lake Park in Indiana. Courtesy Pam Harris. WHAT'S AHEAD? Cooler weather has settled in after the 11th warmest October on record in Grand Rapids. High temperatures have settled into the 50s and that pattern of seasonably cool weather looks to carry on for some time. The upcoming weekend should bring clearing skies from Saturday to Sunday, with more sunshine breaking through. However, winds will be pretty strong — especially Sunday with gusts near 30 mph, which will speed up the leaf drop. Viewing conditions won't be at their best, but the sunshine Sunday will help the remaining colors pop a little better. Download the free Storm Team 8 weather app Stay with Storm Team 8 for your latest forecast heading deeper into the fall season.
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‘Behemoth’ El Niño could be ‘off the charts,’ forecasters warn
(NEXSTAR) – Meteorologists are continuing to warn of the El Niño weather event expected to impact us throughout the winter, with a new climate outlook from the World Meteorological Organization suggesting it "could be unprecedented in strength." In an update Wednesday, the WMO said this year's El Niño weather pattern could be so strong, it could "literally [be] off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades." A main focus of forecasting El Niño comes down to sea surface temperatures. In the Pacific, an "anomaly of 0.5 [degrees Celsius] above normal" can trigger an El Niño alert from the WMO, according to the United Nations. Between next month and January, WMO has forecast temperatures could rise 3.8 degrees Celsius above average. Thanksgiving weather outlooks released: What could it be like near you? "This El Niño is a behemoth," the UN’s emergency relief chief, Tom Fletcher, said Wednesday, further describing it as "a wrecking ball," packed with "extreme heat, droughts, and floods." Its effects are expected to "be felt long after" it peaks at the end of 2026, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said during a press conference, echoing other recent forecasts. What happens during El Niño? This strong, long-lasting El Niño is expected to have a "pretty substantial impact" on the weather we see over the next several months, Brian James, Nexstar chief meteorologist, previously said. As we head into winter, how El Niño plays out will be very different for the northern half of the country and the southern half. Broadly speaking, the northern states will be drier and warmer than normal, while southern states will be cooler and wetter. Recent seasonal outlooks follow that pattern. (Credit: Climate.gov) “Based on what I am seeing now, I am officially concerned,” Daniel Swain, a prominent climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources, said on social media recently, as reported by Nexstar's KTLA. "We’ve never seen an event this big before in the context of our rapidly warming climate … The warning lights are flashing." Chances high for El Niño to be 'historic event' Earlier this month, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said El Niño "strengthened further" in September, with "a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely" from January through March. "Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950," the CPC explained. "With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed." Early winter weather predictions released by NOAA In late September, Columbia University climate scientist Azhar Ehsan, in a briefing to the media, provided a chart showing the probability of El Niño lasting until spring was "100% to 99%." "I wrote near-certain but it's 100%," he said at the time. As it has been, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center agrees El Niño is 100% sticking around for about six more months, though a La Niña pattern may not be too far away (denoted by the blue bar). The Climate Prediction Center indicates the chance of El Niño (seen as a red bar) in each three-month period (September/October/November, followed by October/November/December, and so on). (Map: NOAA/CPC) El Niño is on track to reach its peak in December, the WMO's most recent Global Seasonal Climate Update showed. The report suggests sea-surface temperatures are only expected to "increase to record levels" between now and December, according to a press release. “El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface - which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured (as with 2024),” Saulo told the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok earlier this month. “The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release." What happened in 1997? Ehsan said in a September media briefing that this year's atmospheric evolution looks similar to that of 1997, when one of the strongest-ever El Niños formed. That winter was characterized by broken records and "unusual extremes," climate researchers said in an April 1998 National Climatic Data Center report. It was the U.S.'s second-warmest and seventh-wettest winter since 1895, and the super-strong El Niño contributed to chaotic weather from coast to coast: the Northeast was hit with ice storms, the Southeast and California were drenched with flooding, deadly tornadoes tore across Florida. There were weeks of storminess, and some cities went days without seeing the sun. Costco plans warehouse in a new state as others await their first store As daunting as it sounds, there may be some upsides to the El Niño. KTLA meteorologist Henry DiCarlo said earlier this week that the potential for higher-than-average seasonal rain could help combat the drought conditions California has been battling as of late. Saulo, however, has warned that regions of the world could face severe drought, flooding, and increased heat. "We cannot stop El Niño," she said. "But we can prevent many of its worst human consequences."
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Fall Foliage Forecast: Oct. 22, 2026
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Some of the best viewing conditions of the season will line up with the peak of fall colors in parts of West Michigan heading into the weekend. A drone view over Lookout Park in Grand Rapids, showing trees with pops of color. (Oct. 21, 2026) CURRENT FALL COLORS Moderate to high levels of color change have occurred throughout West Michigan. The Upper Peninsula is generally past the peak of their colors now. Parts of northern lower Michigan are also beginning to move past the peak, though there are still some high levels of color overall. Storm Team 8 Forecast If you're targeting spots to see the best colors in West Michigan, head north toward US-10, where colors are at peak. Grand Rapids and the I-96 corridor are in line to have their peak colors occur moving through the weekend. Areas south and closer to the lakeshore are lagging a little further behind, with the peak colors likely happening near Halloween. BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN PATTERN CONTINUES While the colors are at their most vibrant this weekend in Grand Rapids, we'll also experience optimal viewing conditions. Outside of some morning fog and increasing clouds Sunday, which may mute the colors a little, things are looking to be in great shape if you plan to take a color tour. Temperatures will be very comfortable in the 60s while the wind will hardly be noticeable. Download the free Storm Team 8 weather app Next week, a pattern shift will bring more cloud cover plus slight rain chances. There may still be some impressive areas of foliage, but the leaf drop will accelerate into November and overall viewing conditions will likely become worse. Enjoy the scenery while it lasts and pass along your pictures to us.
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Early winter weather predictions released by NOAA
(NEXSTAR) – Warmer and dry or about-normal and wet – that's the way late fall and early winter are expected to be divided in the U.S., according to the latest outlook. As it did in September, the latest seasonal forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows a country divided. The forecast, released Thursday, shows the kind of broad weather patterns each state can expect through the last two months of 2026 and the first of 2027, falling roughly in line with what is expected from the "historic" El Niño we're facing. What will winter be like near you? Here's what the outlooks suggest States in the northern half of the country – from the Pacific Northwest, along the Canadian border, through the Midwest, into the Ohio Valley eastward, and north to New England – have the highest probability of seeing above-average warmth between November and January. An expanding group of states – including all or parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, and California – are not leaning above-average this fall. That doesn't mean it will be cold, necessarily; it just means the forecast is less clear, giving the states an equal chance of seeing a warm, cool, or normal winter season. The precipitation outlook is flipped, however. These households could spend more to heat their homes this winter, federal outlook says Many of the same states expected to trend warmer are also more likely to be dry. A large, W-shaped swath to the south – from California to Florida and north to New England, as well as a group in the central Plains – are leaning toward above-average rain. Florida and its nearby neighbors from the Gulf to the East Coast, as well as southern California and Arizona, have the highest probability. Meanwhile, portions of Montana, Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Alaska have the highest probability of a dry winter. These forecasts are roughly what is expected during a typical El Niño year, with the dividing line across the country shifting depending on the position of the jet stream. Earlier this month, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said in its latest update that El Niño "strengthened further last month," with "a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely" from January through March. "Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950," the latest guidance from the CPC explained. "With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed."
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How to help after Hurricane Isaias
MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) — United Way of Southwest Alabama is teaming up with Nexstar sister stations to help expand Hurricane Isaias relief efforts in 19 counties in Florida and Alabama. Money raised will support individuals, businesses and organizations who are recovering from the storm. "Led by WKRG News 5, the regional media collaboration extends the fund's reach across multiple television markets, allowing donors to support relief and recovery efforts in the county of their choice," the release read. Mobile-based WKRG supports Baldwin, Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Mobile and Monroe counties in Alabama, as well as Escambia, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa counties in Florida. Four more Nexstar sister stations are also participating in the relief effort, including: WDHN Supporting Coffee, Covington, Geneva, and Houston counties in Alabama WRBL Supporting Barbour County in Alabama WIAT Supporting Jefferson County in Alabama WMBB Supporting Bay, Holmes, Walton and Washington counties in Florida “Recovery doesn't stop at county or state lines,” Justine Bixler, president and CEO of United Way of Southwest Alabama, said. “Our collaboration with WKRG News 5 allows us to reach more communities and connect people who want to help with organizations supporting families affected by Hurricane Isaias. "By working together with local media, we can bring greater attention and resources to recovery efforts throughout the region.” Those interested in donating can do so in three ways: online at the GiveSmart website, by texting Isaias26 to 91999, or by scanning the QR code above.
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Fall Foliage Forecast: Oct. 15, 2026
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — West Michigan is approaching the peak of the fall colors, but rain and breezy conditions may take away the top-end potential from our foliage display. CURRENT FALL COLORS Much of the Upper Peninsula has now peaked, though colors remain vibrant near the shorelines. If you're planning to head north to the U.P. your best views of the leaves will be seen in communities like Manistique and Sault Ste. Marie or parts of the Keweenaw Peninsula, where colors are lagging slightly behind areas toward the Porcupine Mountains, which are past peak. Meanwhile, the majority of the lower peninsula is showing moderate color changes with approximately half of the leaves having changed. Storm Team 8 Forecast It'd be a great weekend to visit Petoskey or Gaylord, which are on course to hit their peak colors within the next few days. Most of West Michigan is scheduled to see peak colors during the final week of October, leading up to Halloween. WINDY AND RAINY LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND The month of October has offered quiet, dry and comfortable conditions for fall color tours. However, some substantial changes are expected leading into the weekend. Strong winds from the northwest gusting near 30 mph will combine with periods of moderate to heavy rain. These factors will begin to pull off more of the leaves from the trees. If you have any trees around your property, you'll likely need to do some raking in the near future once things dry back out. Inside woodtv.com: Radar SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND AHEAD While Thursday and Friday will bring active weather to the region, things should settle down for the upcoming weekend. Clouds are expected to dissipate quickly Saturday following some patchy morning frost. Sunny skies will help the fall colors shine throughout the weekend. On Sunday, the wind will kick up a notch with gusts registering between 20 and 25 mph from the southwest. Temperatures will respond sliding back into the 60s. The extended forecast favors sunshine and mild autumn high temperatures in the 60s for much of the coming week, so hopefully the impacts of the breezy and wet conditions will be minimal. Stay with Storm Team 8 as we bring you more updates on the fall colors through the weeks ahead and send your pictures in anytime.
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How the Waffle House Index helps Southerners — and FEMA — gauge a storm’s severity
(AP) – Golden hash browns, gravy-smothered biscuits and crispy waffles with a hearty helping of syrup are among the classic Southern comfort foods. But when hurricanes tear through Southeastern towns, the hot meals and bold yellow signs of the local Waffle House provide another kind of comfort. If a Waffle House stays open in town, even in a limited capacity, neighbors are reassured that the coming storm is unlikely to cause devastation. A closed location of the dependable diner chain has come to indicate impending disaster. The metric is known as the Waffle House Index. FILE - A sign on a closed Waffle House on Highway US 19 in anticipation of Hurricane Milton on Oct. 8, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson, File) What might sound like silly logic has become one of the most reliable ways for Southerners — and even federal officials — to gauge a storm’s severity and identify communities most in need of immediate aid. What is the Waffle House Index? The South’s favorite disaster authority provides an informal measure of how significantly a storm will affect or has affected a community. A map of the chain’s over 1,900 locations, concentrated in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, helps residents of storm-prone states assess whether they’re likely to lose power, experience severe flooding or endure other extreme conditions that might cause a resilient restaurant to close its doors. For some, it’s a telltale sign of whether they need to evacuate. Hurricane Isaias expected to get stronger before landfall Waffle House is known not just for serving breakfast 24/7, 365 days a year, but also for its disaster preparedness. For decades, people across the South have noticed that the local Waffle House seemed to be the only business still open during a storm or the first to reopen after it passed. The restaurant chain’s reputation for remaining open when people desperately needed a place to warm up, charge devices and grab a hot meal became a fairly reliable — albeit amusing — resource to help track recovery efforts. The company even operates its own storm center. How does the index work? Waffle House’s social media shares color-coded maps of its restaurant locations in certain regions that will soon be hit or are recovering from storm damage. The Federal Emergency Management Agency also offers some live tracking. Green means the location is serving a full menu, indicating minimal damage in the surrounding area. The lights are on and the syrup is flowing. FILE - Luke Churchill, left, stands with his wife Mary and their children, Katie, Liam and Raighan, as they wait in the rain outside an open Waffle House restaurant in Wilmington, N.C., after Hurricane Florence traveled through the area on Sept. 16, 2018. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File) Yellow means the restaurant is serving a limited menu, a signal that it’s pulling power from a generator and might have a low food supply. The area might not have running water or electricity, but there’s enough gas to fry up bacon for hungry customers. Red means the location is closed, a sign of unsafe operating conditions and severe destruction to the restaurant or nearby communities. How did the index start? Former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate has said he thought up the Waffle House Index while leading Florida’s emergency management efforts in 2004. He had been searching for something to eat while surveying the devastation left by Hurricane Charley and was only able to find a Waffle House serving a limited menu. His team began to notice other open Waffle Houses in communities without power or running water. The restaurants eventually became a key feature on a color-coded map that his team provided to help the public and local officials identify where storm damage was most severe. Fugate continued to use his color-coded map when he joined FEMA under President Barack Obama. He was the agency’s administrator in 2011 when a deadly tornado tore through the town of Joplin, Missouri. Both of the town’s Waffle Houses reportedly stayed open. The restaurant chain’s disaster readiness is no coincidence. Seven locations were destroyed and 100 more shut down in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina, but company executives saw business skyrocket at restaurants that reopened quickly. They soon embraced a business strategy centered around keeping their restaurants operable during and after a disaster, according to the company’s website. The chain said it has invested in portable generators, bought a mobile command center and trained employees on what they can still serve if they lose electricity.
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Chief Meteorologist Ellen Bacca (and husband Mark) welcomed their first child over the weekend, with the birth of Piper Sunny. Check out these sweet pictures<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hurricane Lee continues to slowly track toward the United States. Click here for the latest on intensity and path<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Saturday brought plenty of sunshine and calm conditions. Bill’s Blog dives into what is currently the calmest day of 2023.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
WEATHER WEAR<\/strong>
Rain Jacket
Umbrella<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SUNRISE<\/strong> 7:17 a.m.
SUNSET<\/strong> 7:59 p.m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Christ was sacrificed once to take away the sins of many; and he will appear a second time, not to bear sin, but to bring salvation to those who are waiting for him.
HEBREWS 9:28 NIVGrand Rapids / Lakeshore
Kalamazoo
Battle Creek
Benton Harbor

